Reading Comprehension Assessment Series
GRADE 8
INFERENCE & SYNTHESIS
Reading Through History: Economic
Theory, Crisis & the Limits of Knowledge
Drawing
Conclusions · Making Predictions ·
Cross-Paragraph Synthesis · Dual-Passage Comparison
Tier
2 & Tier 3 Academic Vocabulary
· Frustration-Level Text
Student
Name: _________________________________
Date: ____________
Teacher:
_________________________________
Period / Class: ____________
SKILL REFERENCE: INFERENCE &
SYNTHESIS QUESTION CATEGORIES
This assessment requires you to read between
the lines—to think like a detective. The table below identifies the eight
inference and synthesis skills you will practice.
|
Inference Category |
Skill Tested |
DOK / CRM |
Detective Move |
|
Implied Main Idea |
Infer the unstated central
claim from evidence patterns |
DOK 2–3 / B-2–C-3 |
What is the author implying
but not saying directly? |
|
Logical Conclusion |
Draw a conclusion that must
follow from stated evidence |
DOK 2–3 / B-2–C-3 |
Given what I know, what must
be true? |
|
Prediction / Projection |
Predict what would likely
happen given the passage's logic |
DOK 3 / C-3 |
If this is true, what comes
next? |
|
Character / Author
Motivation |
Infer unstated reasons for
an action or rhetorical choice |
DOK 3 / C-3 |
Why did they do/say this
without stating why? |
|
Cross-Paragraph Connection |
Connect ideas stated in
different paragraphs to form a new insight |
DOK 3–4 / C-3–D-4 |
How do these two separate
facts relate to each other? |
|
Dual-Passage Synthesis |
Compare, contrast, or
synthesize two passages on related topics |
DOK 3–4 / C-3–D-4 |
What would Passage A say
about Passage B's claim? |
|
Authorial Assumption / Gap |
Identify what the author
assumes without arguing for, or what is missing |
DOK 4 / D-4 |
What has the author left
unsaid or taken for granted? |
|
Evaluative Synthesis |
Assess the strength of an
argument using evidence from across the text |
DOK 4 / D-4 |
Does the evidence actually
prove the claim? |
DIRECTIONS
Read both passages carefully. Annotate as you
go—underline evidence, circle clues, draw arrows between connected ideas across
passages. Every question requires inference: do not look only for sentences
that directly answer the question. The answer is always built from evidence,
but it is never stated outright. For written responses, construct your
reasoning step by step.
PASSAGE A: THE ARCHITECTURE OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT — SMITH, KEYNES
& THE INVISIBLE HAND
[A1] The
Enlightenment faith in reason as the sovereign guide to human progress
generated, as one of its most consequential intellectual inheritances, the
discipline of economics. Classical political economy—developed by Adam Smith,
David Ricardo, and John Stuart Mill in the eighteenth and nineteenth
centuries—proceeded on the assumption that economic behavior could be
understood through universal rational principles, much as Newton had described
the motion of physical bodies through universal mathematical laws. The
marketplace, on this view, was not a chaotic arena of competing human interests
but a self-regulating system that, if left undisturbed by government
interference, would naturally equilibrate supply and demand, allocate resources
efficiently, and generate prosperity through the mechanism of the
"invisible hand."
[A2] The
Great Depression (1929–1939) constituted an empirical refutation of the
self-equilibrating market thesis so severe that it could not be absorbed by the
existing theoretical framework without fundamental revision. John Maynard
Keynes, whose General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) is
arguably the most consequential work of economic theory written in the
twentieth century, diagnosed the Depression as the product of a catastrophic
collapse in aggregate demand—the total spending of households, businesses, and
governments—rather than as the result of external interference with an
otherwise functional market mechanism. Keynes argued that markets, left to
themselves, had no automatic mechanism for recovering from demand shortfalls of
sufficient magnitude; rational decisions by individual economic actors could be
collectively irrational, producing a trap from which the market could not
escape without government intervention.
[A3] Keynesian
economics dominated Western economic policy from the end of World War II
through the 1970s, during which time governments in the United States, United
Kingdom, and Western Europe pursued deliberate fiscal policies—deficit
spending, progressive taxation, and investment in public goods—designed to
stabilize demand and sustain full employment. The thirty years of the postwar
Keynesian consensus produced the longest period of broad-based prosperity in
Western history: the American "middle-class miracle," the German
Wirtschaftswunder, and the French Trente Glorieuses were all products of
managed economies guided by Keynesian principles.
[A4] The
Keynesian consensus fractured in the 1970s under the pressure of
stagflation—the simultaneous occurrence of high inflation and high
unemployment, which Keynesian theory had held was impossible. Milton Friedman
and the Chicago School of economics offered an alternative
framework—monetarism, subsequently elaborated into neoliberalism—which
reinstated key elements of the classical equilibrium model, attributed the
failures of the 1970s to excessive government intervention rather than to
market dysfunction, and argued that sustainable prosperity required
deregulation, privatization, and the reduction of the state's role in economic
management. The Thatcher and Reagan governments implemented this framework with
sweeping scope beginning in 1979 and 1981 respectively.
PASSAGE B: THE 2008 CRISIS, NEOLIBERALISM'S LIMITS & THE
THEORETICAL VACUUM
[B1] The
2008 global financial crisis constituted for neoliberalism what the Great
Depression had constituted for classical economics: a catastrophic empirical
stress test that the dominant theoretical framework failed. The collapse of the
American housing market, triggered by the implosion of a vast system of
subprime mortgage lending and derivative financial instruments, produced a
financial shock that spread through the global banking system with a speed and
severity that market self-correction mechanisms were entirely unable to
contain. Governments across the world were compelled to intervene at a scale
that would have been ideologically unthinkable under neoliberal assumptions
just years earlier.
[B2] The
immediate policy response to the crisis—massive bank bailouts, quantitative
easing by central banks, and fiscal stimulus packages—was demonstrably
Keynesian in character, representing a pragmatic abandonment of neoliberal
principles under crisis conditions. Yet the longer-term policy response in the
United States, United Kingdom, and much of Europe took the form of
austerity—sharp reductions in government spending—which was defended by
neoliberal economists as necessary to restore market confidence and fiscal
discipline. The contradiction between the Keynesian crisis response and the
neoliberal recovery strategy produced what critics called a "recovery for
asset holders and austerity for everyone else"—a distributional pattern
that reflected the political power of financial institutions rather than the
prescriptions of any coherent economic theory.
[B3] The
2008 crisis also revealed what heterodox economists—those working outside the
mainstream neoclassical framework—had long argued: that the dominant models of
economic behavior had systematically excluded the possibility of a financial
crisis of the type that actually occurred. The efficient markets hypothesis—the
claim that asset prices fully and instantaneously reflect all available
information, making sustained mispricing impossible—was a foundational
assumption of the financial models used to design and evaluate the derivative
instruments that drove the crisis. The crisis demonstrated that the efficient
markets hypothesis described a world that did not exist.
[B4] The
post-2008 period has produced no successor consensus to replace the neoliberal
framework that the crisis delegitimized—only a proliferation of heterodox
proposals (Modern Monetary Theory, degrowth economics, stakeholder capitalism)
competing for institutional influence without yet achieving paradigmatic
status. This theoretical vacuum has contributed to the economic policy
incoherence that characterizes much of the contemporary political landscape:
governments pursuing contradictory policies—stimulus and austerity
simultaneously, market deregulation and market intervention in different
sectors—without a coherent framework capable of justifying or integrating their
choices.
SECTION A — SINGLE-PASSAGE
INFERENCE (2 pts each)
Questions 1–8: Draw conclusions, infer main
ideas, identify author motivations, and detect authorial assumptions from
within individual passages.
1. [Logical Conclusion] Passage
A describes the classical economic view that the market has an "invisible
hand" that naturally equilibrates supply and demand. What conclusion can
you draw about what this metaphor implies regarding the appropriate role of
government in the economy?
DOK 2 · CRM
B-2
▸ Infer what
the "invisible hand" metaphor implies about government.
A) The invisible hand metaphor
implies that government should actively guide the market, as a visible hand
directs an invisible one
B) If an invisible mechanism
naturally produces efficient outcomes, then visible intervention by government
is likely to disrupt rather than improve on that mechanism—the metaphor implies
that government interference is at best unnecessary and at worst actively
harmful to the market's self-correcting processes
C) The invisible hand metaphor
implies that economic outcomes are determined by chance rather than by human
agency or policy
D) The invisible hand is a
descriptive metaphor with no prescriptive implications about the appropriate
scope of government economic policy
2. [Implied Main Idea] Passage
A traces the development of economic theory from classical economics through
Keynes through neoliberalism. What main idea does this trajectory imply without
stating?
DOK 2 · CRM
B-2
▸ Infer the
central argument of Passage A.
A) Economic theory has progressively
improved in its ability to predict and prevent economic crises, culminating in
neoliberalism as the most reliable framework currently available
B) The history of economic theory is
a series of frameworks that appear to explain economic reality until a crisis
reveals their limits, at which point a new framework emerges to address those
limits—only to eventually face its own crisis, suggesting that no economic
theory achieves the universal, timeless validity its proponents claim for it
C) Keynesian economics is the most
empirically reliable framework and should be restored as the governing
framework of economic policy
D) The history of economic theory
reflects primarily the political interests of dominant classes rather than
genuine intellectual progress in understanding how economies work
3. [Authorial Assumption / Gap]
Passage A describes the postwar Keynesian era as producing
"the longest period of broad-based prosperity in Western history."
What assumption about what counts as prosperity and whose prosperity matters
does this claim make without examining?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Identify
an unexamined assumption in Passage A.
A) The claim assumes that prosperity
is measured by GDP growth rates, which the passage defends through the specific
examples of the American, German, and French postwar economies
B) The claim assumes that Western
prosperity during this period was "broad-based" in a meaningful
sense—but does not examine the extent to which this prosperity excluded racial
minorities (in the US, the benefits of the Keynesian welfare state were largely
inaccessible to Black Americans through discriminatory policy), women (whose
labor was systematically undervalued), and colonized populations whose
resources contributed to Western growth; nor does it examine whether
"Western" prosperity was partly built on extractive relationships
with the Global South
C) The claim assumes that the
Keynesian policy framework was the sole cause of postwar prosperity, without
considering the role of post-war reconstruction demand, cheap oil, or Cold War
military spending
D) The claim assumes that readers
will recognize the German "Wirtschaftswunder" and French "Trente
Glorieuses" without requiring explanation
4. [Prediction / Projection]
Passage A states that stagflation—simultaneous high inflation
and high unemployment—"Keynesian theory had held was impossible."
Based on the pattern described across Passages A and B, what would we expect to
happen to Keynesian economics after stagflation appeared?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Predict
the implication of stagflation for Keynesian theory.
A) Keynesian economists would develop
a refined version of the theory that incorporated the possibility of
stagflation while retaining the framework's core prescriptions
B) Following the pattern the passage
establishes—each major crisis that a theory cannot account for triggers the
theory's replacement or significant revision—stagflation would delegitimize
Keynesian economics as the dominant policy framework and create conditions for
a rival theory (monetarism/neoliberalism) to replace it, which is precisely
what Passage A then describes as having occurred in the 1970s through Thatcher
and Reagan
C) Keynesian economists would
incorporate monetarist insights into a synthesis framework that would become
the new consensus
D) The appearance of stagflation
would lead governments to abandon economic theory altogether and adopt purely
pragmatic, case-by-case responses to economic conditions
5. [Character / Author Motivation]
Passage A compares Adam Smith's approach to economics with
Newton's description of physical laws. Why does the author make this specific
comparison, and what does it imply about classical economics'
self-understanding?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Infer the
purpose of the Newton comparison in paragraph one.
A) The comparison is meant to
demonstrate that economics is as scientifically reliable as physics, validating
the classical economists' policy prescriptions
B) The comparison reveals that
classical economists modeled their discipline explicitly on Newtonian
physics—claiming the same universal, objective, mathematically expressible
authority—and that this self-understanding is itself a significant fact about
the discipline's intellectual ambitions and potential blind spots; a science
that sees itself as analogous to physics may mistake its historically situated
models for timeless laws, making it resistant to empirical revision when those
models fail
C) The Newton comparison is intended
to argue that economics should be taught as a natural science rather than as a
social science
D) The comparison is ironic—the
author uses the Newton analogy to show that economics has never been as
reliable as physics and should not be treated as equivalent
6. [Logical Conclusion] Passage
B states that the 2008 crisis demonstrated that the efficient markets
hypothesis "described a world that did not exist." What conclusion
can you draw about the relationship between a theory's foundational assumptions
and its predictive reliability?
DOK 2 · CRM
B-2
▸ Infer the
implications of the efficient markets hypothesis failure.
A) A theory can be practically
reliable even if its foundational assumptions are false, as long as the false
assumptions do not affect the domain in which the theory is applied
B) A theory built on foundational
assumptions that misrepresent reality will be reliably predictive only within
the conditions for which those assumptions happen to approximate reality—when
those conditions change, or when consequences are explicitly excluded by the
false assumptions materialize, the theory will fail catastrophically and
without internal warning, because the anomaly that destroys it is precisely the
one its assumptions defined as impossible
C) The failure of the efficient
markets hypothesis proves that economic behavior is inherently unpredictable
and that no theoretical framework can successfully model financial markets
D) The efficient markets hypothesis
was not actually foundational to the financial models involved in the 2008
crisis; its failure is therefore only incidentally related to the crisis's
severity
7. [Implied Main Idea] Passage
B traces the 2008 crisis, the response to it, and the "theoretical
vacuum" that followed. What central argument does it imply without
stating?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Infer the
central argument of Passage B.
A) The 2008 crisis proved that
Keynesian economics was correct all along and should be permanently reinstated
as the governing framework of economic policy
B) The post-2008 period reveals that
economic crises do not automatically generate theoretical replacements—the
failure of neoliberalism created an institutional and intellectual vacuum in
which governments pursue contradictory policies without a coherent framework,
suggesting that the normal pattern of paradigm succession described in Passage
A may not hold when the available alternatives are fragmented and none achieves
institutional consensus
C) The 2008 crisis was primarily
caused by the specific models used to evaluate mortgage-backed securities
rather than by any broader failure of neoliberal economic theory
D) The appropriate response to the
2008 crisis would have been consistent Keynesian stimulus without any austerity
measures, which would have produced a faster and more equitable recovery
8. [Authorial Assumption / Gap]
Both passages treat economic theory as developing through
crisis-driven paradigm succession—classical → Keynesian → neoliberal →
theoretical vacuum. What foundational assumption about the relationship between
economic theory and economic practice underlies this narrative, and is this
assumption ever examined?
DOK 4 · CRM
D-4
▸ DOK 4:
Identify the deepest assumption underlying both passages.
A) Both passages assume that economic
theory directly determines economic policy, which is examined through the
specific historical examples of the Thatcher and Reagan governments
B) Both passages assume that economic
theory is genuinely influential in determining policy outcomes—that what
economists believe shapes what governments do—but never examine whether this is
actually true in the ways assumed; an alternative account would hold that
economic theory primarily provides post-hoc legitimation for policies driven by
class interests and political power, with "Keynesianism" and
"neoliberalism" functioning as intellectual cover for underlying
distributional struggles rather than as genuine causal forces; neither passage
examines this possibility, treating theory as a genuine driver of practice
rather than as ideological rationalization
C) Both passages assume that paradigm
succession in economics follows the same logic as Kuhnian paradigm succession
in natural science, which Passage B examines through the efficient markets
hypothesis failure
D) Both passages assume that economic
crises are the primary mechanism through which theoretical change occurs,
without examining the role of political movements, social activism, or
institutional interest in shaping which theories achieve dominance
SECTION B — CROSS-PARAGRAPH &
DUAL-PASSAGE SYNTHESIS (2 pts each)
Questions 9–14: Connect ideas across
paragraphs within and between passages. Evaluate arguments using combined
evidence.
9. [Cross-Paragraph Connection]
Passage A describes the Great Depression as forcing a
fundamental revision of classical economic theory. Passage B describes the 2008
crisis as failing to produce a comparable theoretical successor to
neoliberalism. What inference can you draw about what the difference between
these two outcomes reveals?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Connect
the Great Depression's theoretical impact with the 2008 crisis.
A) The difference reveals that
economic crises have become less theoretically challenging since the twentieth
century as economists have developed more robust analytical tools
B) The difference suggests that
theoretical succession requires not just a crisis that exposes the limits of
the existing framework but also a ready alternative framework that is
sufficiently developed and institutionally supported to step into the vacuum; Keynes
had spent years developing his critique before the Depression provided the
crisis that made his framework politically viable—the post-2008 period lacks a
comparably developed and institutionally backed successor, which is why the
theoretical vacuum persists
C) The difference is explained by the
fact that the 2008 crisis was not as severe as the Great Depression and
therefore did not create sufficient intellectual pressure for paradigm change
D) The difference shows that
neoliberalism was more theoretically robust than classical economics and
therefore survived its crisis better than classical economics survived the
Depression
10. [Cross-Paragraph Connection]
Passage A describes the postwar Keynesian era as producing
"broad-based prosperity." Passage B describes the post-2008 recovery
as producing a "recovery for asset holders and austerity for everyone
else." What inference can you draw about the relationship between the
governing economic framework and the distribution of economic outcomes?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Connect
the Keynesian consensus outcomes with the post-2008 "recovery for asset
holders" pattern.
A) The difference in distributional
outcomes is entirely explained by changes in technology and globalization
rather than by changes in economic policy frameworks
B) The two periods suggest that the
governing economic framework significantly shapes who benefits from
recovery—Keynesian policies, which prioritized aggregate demand and full
employment, produced broadly distributed growth, while the post-2008 hybrid of
Keynesian stimulus (concentrated in financial sector bailouts) and neoliberal
austerity (concentrated in public spending cuts) produced recovery that flowed
primarily to those who held financial assets, indicating that distributional
outcomes reflect the political priorities embedded in economic frameworks
rather than merely the logic of market recovery
C) The different distributional
outcomes are explained by the different severity of the two crises rather than
by differences in the policy frameworks used to address them
D) The "recovery for asset
holders" pattern was an unintended consequence of the austerity policies
rather than a predictable outcome of the neoliberal framework
11. [Evaluative Synthesis] Passages
A and B together describe a pattern of economic theory developing through
crisis-driven paradigm succession. Evaluate whether this pattern adequately
explains the post-2008 "theoretical vacuum" described in Passage B,
or whether the vacuum reveals a limitation in the paradigm succession model
itself.
DOK 4 · CRM
D-4
▸ DOK 4:
Evaluate whether the paradigm succession narrative adequately explains the
post-2008 situation.
A) The paradigm succession model
fully explains the post-2008 vacuum as a temporary transitional phase that will
resolve when a new consensus emerges
B) The post-2008 vacuum reveals a
limitation in the paradigm succession model: the model assumes that crisis
creates a clear intellectual and institutional space for a new framework to
fill, but the proliferation of heterodox alternatives without any achieving
paradigmatic status suggests that the conditions for paradigm
succession—including institutional consolidation, elite consensus, and policy
implementation—may be harder to achieve in a more fragmented political economy;
the vacuum itself is a data point that the paradigm succession model cannot
easily account for
C) The post-2008 vacuum confirms the
paradigm succession model by demonstrating that crises always produce
theoretical uncertainty before a new consensus crystallizes
D) The post-2008 vacuum is explained
by the fact that the 2008 crisis was not severe enough to fully delegitimize
neoliberalism, unlike the Great Depression's complete delegitimization of
classical economics
12. [Dual-Passage Synthesis] What
is the single most important inference you can draw from reading BOTH passages
together that neither passage states explicitly?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Identify
the deepest inference both passages together support.
A) The most important inference is
that Keynesian economics is the most reliable economic framework available and
should be restored as the governing consensus
B) The most important inference is
that economic theory functions as a historically contingent intellectual
framework that is adopted not purely because of its analytical accuracy but
because of its alignment with the political conditions, crisis experiences, and
institutional interests of particular historical moments—and that what appears
as "the march of economic knowledge" is better understood as a
sequence of socially embedded frameworks, each achieving dominance for reasons
that include but are not reducible to their explanatory power, and each being
displaced when the conditions that sustained their dominance change
C) The most important inference is
that economic crises are the primary driver of human history and that
understanding them is therefore more important than understanding political or
cultural history
D) The most important inference is
that no economic framework can be both theoretically rigorous and politically
viable, requiring policymakers to choose one or the other
13. [Cross-Paragraph Connection]
Passage A describes Keynes's insight that "rational
decisions by individual economic actors could be collectively irrational."
Passage B shows that financial models built on the efficient markets
hypothesis—which assumes individual actors make rational decisions that
aggregate into efficient prices—failed catastrophically. What inference can you
draw about the relationship between individual rationality and systemic
stability?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Connect
the rational individual paradox from Keynes with the efficient markets
hypothesis failure.
A) The two examples together prove
that individual economic actors are fundamentally irrational and that economic
models should abandon the rationality assumption entirely
B) Together they suggest that
aggregating individually rational behaviors into systemic outcomes produces
emergent dynamics that are not themselves rational—that the market as a system
is not simply a sum of individual rational agents but a complex adaptive system
capable of producing collective outcomes (demand collapse, asset price bubbles)
that no individual actor intended or would endorse; this insight implies that
models built on individual rationality are systematically blind to system-level
behaviors
C) The two examples are unrelated
because Keynes was analyzing labor markets and the efficient markets hypothesis
applies to financial markets, which operate under different dynamics
D) The connection between individual
rationality and collective irrationality was already well-understood by
classical economists and was not a novel insight introduced by Keynes
14. [Evaluative Synthesis] Both
passages describe economic theories that claimed scientific status—universal,
objective, mathematically rigorous—yet were falsified by historical events.
Based on evidence from BOTH passages, evaluate whether economics qualifies as a
genuine science in the way Passage A implies classical economics claimed to be.
DOK 4 · CRM
D-4
▸ DOK 4:
Evaluate whether economics qualifies as a science under its own framework.
A) Economics qualifies as a genuine
science because it uses mathematical modeling and empirical data, even if its
theories are sometimes falsified by historical events
B) The evidence of both passages
challenges economics' claim to the kind of scientific status classical
economists sought by analogy with Newtonian physics: genuine sciences produce
theories whose falsification leads to more refined theories converging toward
greater predictive accuracy; but the pattern in both passages—classical →
Keynesian → neoliberal → vacuum—suggests that economic frameworks are more
politically contingent and crisis-reactive than genuinely scientific, with
"falsification" producing not refinement but wholesale replacement
driven as much by political conditions as by analytical evaluation; economics
may be a rigorous social discipline but its claim to Newtonian scientific
universality appears unjustified by its own history
C) Economics fully qualifies as a
science, but only in the Kuhnian sense that it advances through paradigm shifts
rather than through linear accumulation of knowledge
D) Economics does not qualify as a
science because its subject matter—human economic behavior—is too complex and
variable to be captured by mathematical models
SECTION C — PREDICTION &
PROJECTION (2 pts each)
Questions 15–18: Use the logic and evidence
of both passages to predict likely outcomes, policy implications, and future
developments.
15. [Prediction / Projection]
Based on the pattern described across both passages, what
conditions would MOST likely be necessary for a new economic consensus to
emerge from the post-2008 theoretical vacuum?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Predict
what would be needed for a new economic consensus to emerge.
A) A new consensus would emerge
automatically once academic economists published sufficient research
demonstrating the superiority of one heterodox approach over the others
B) Based on the historical
pattern—Keynesianism required both a fully developed theoretical framework AND
a political crisis severe enough to delegitimize the incumbent theory AND
governments willing and able to implement the new approach—a new consensus would
likely require: a further crisis that completely delegitimizes residual
neoliberal frameworks; a heterodox approach developed enough to offer a
comprehensive policy program; and a political coalition capable of implementing
it across major economies simultaneously
C) A new consensus would emerge
through the normal process of academic debate and would be adopted gradually by
economic policymakers as evidence accumulated in its favor
D) A new consensus is impossible
because the proliferation of heterodox alternatives guarantees permanent
theoretical fragmentation
16. [Prediction / Projection]
Passage B describes governments pursuing "contradictory
policies" in the absence of a coherent economic framework. Based on both
passages, what is the MOST likely political consequence of sustained economic
policy incoherence?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Predict
what the "theoretical vacuum" implies for democratic politics.
A) Sustained policy incoherence will
motivate voters to elect more technically competent leaders who can navigate
the complexity of contemporary economic conditions
B) Sustained economic policy
incoherence—producing contradictory outcomes that appear unresponsive to any
consistent principle—is likely to erode public trust in mainstream political
and economic institutions, creating conditions for the rise of populist movements
that offer simple, confident narratives about economic causation even when
those narratives are empirically unfounded; the theoretical vacuum creates a
political opportunity for ideological certainty to fill the space that
analytical coherence has vacated
C) Sustained policy incoherence will
motivate international coordination among major economies to develop a shared
economic policy framework
D) The political consequences of
economic policy incoherence are minimal because most voters make decisions
based on cultural and identity factors rather than economic outcomes
17. [Prediction / Projection]
Based on the pattern across both passages, if a major
economic crisis occurs within the next decade, what is the MOST predictable
effect on the current proliferation of heterodox economic frameworks?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Predict
what a future crisis would reveal about the post-2008 frameworks.
A) A new crisis would likely
discredit all heterodox frameworks simultaneously, since their predictions are
too divergent to all be falsified by the same event
B) A new crisis would function as a
decisive test of the competing heterodox frameworks—those whose diagnoses most
closely align with the crisis's apparent causes would gain institutional
credibility and political support, potentially accelerating the convergence
toward a new consensus around whichever framework most plausibly explains and
prescribes responses to the new crisis, following the pattern set by Keynes and
the Depression
C) A new crisis would most likely
produce another round of ad hoc policy responses without significantly changing
the theoretical landscape
D) Heterodox frameworks are already
sufficiently developed that a new crisis would immediately produce consensus
around the most technically sophisticated alternative
18. [Prediction / Projection]
Both passages trace the relationship between economic crises,
economic theory, and policy. Based on this pattern, what can you predict about
which economic theories are MOST likely to achieve the status of policy
consensus in the future, regardless of their analytical merit?
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
▸ Predict
what both passages together imply about the relationship between theory and
power.
A) Theories with the strongest
mathematical foundations are most likely to achieve policy consensus, since
policymakers prefer frameworks that appear rigorous and objective
B) Based on the historical pattern,
theories most likely to achieve policy consensus will be those that align most
effectively with the political and institutional interests of economically
dominant groups at the moment of their adoption—as Keynesianism aligned with
postwar social democratic coalitions and neoliberalism aligned with financial
sector and corporate interests in the 1980s—meaning that theoretical merit,
while necessary, is insufficient without political coalition support, and that
predicting future consensus requires analyzing political economy as much as
intellectual development
C) Theories that most accurately
predict economic behavior under crisis conditions are most likely to achieve
consensus, since policymakers will rationally adopt the most empirically
reliable framework available
D) Future economic consensus is
impossible to predict because the relationship between theory and policy
depends on too many contingent political and historical factors
SECTION D — SHORT ANSWER (10 pts each)
DOK 3–4
| CRM C-3 / D-4 |
Complete sentences and evidence from BOTH passages required.
19. [Cross-Passage Inference — Analysis] Passage A describes how Keynes
identified a paradox: individually rational decisions could produce
collectively irrational outcomes. Passage B shows that financial models built
on individual rationality failed to predict or prevent the 2008 crisis. Drawing
on both passages, construct a specific inference about what this pattern
reveals regarding the limits of methodological individualism—the practice of
explaining large-scale social and economic phenomena by aggregating individual
behaviors. Your inference must go beyond summarizing either passage. (DOK 3 |
CRM C-3)
DOK 3 · CRM
C-3
20. [Evaluative Synthesis] Both
passages trace economic frameworks that claimed scientific objectivity but were
later revealed to be historically contingent and politically embedded. Based on
evidence from BOTH passages, evaluate this claim: "Economic theory
functions less as a science that discovers truths about economic reality and
more as a legitimizing ideology that provides intellectual justification for
prevailing distributions of power." Construct a specific argument for or
against this claim, using evidence from both passages, and explain what your
position implies about how economic expertise should be evaluated by democratic
publics and policymakers. (DOK 4 | CRM D-4)
DOK 4 · CRM
D-4
SECTION E — EXTENDED SYNTHESIS
ESSAY (20 pts)
DOK Level 4
| CRM D-4 |
Minimum 10 sentences. Draw on BOTH passages. Construct original
inferences—do not simply summarize.
21. [Full Synthesis — Extended Response] Full Synthesis: Passages A and B
together trace the succession of economic paradigms from classical economics
through the current theoretical vacuum, with each transition driven by a crisis
that exposed the limits of the incumbent framework. In a well-organized
extended response using evidence from BOTH passages: (1) construct a single
unified inference about what this pattern of paradigm succession and crisis
reveals about the relationship between economic theory, political power, and
historical contingency; (2) identify the specific moment in this
narrative—drawing on either passage—that you consider the most analytically
significant turning point, and construct a specific argument for why it is the
pivotal moment rather than others; (3) evaluate whether the post-2008
"theoretical vacuum" represents a failure of economic theory, a
failure of economic institutions, a failure of political conditions, or all
three—and defend your evaluation with specific evidence; and (4) construct your
own original inference, not stated by either passage, about what the history of
economic thought reveals about the possibility of genuinely objective social
science—can a discipline studying human social behavior ever achieve the kind
of universal, crisis-resistant theoretical authority that Passage A says
classical economists aspired to? Use both passages as your evidence.
DOK 4 · CRM
D-4
SECTION F — DETECTIVE JOURNAL (4 pts each)
DOK 2–3
| CRM B-2 / C-3 | The
detective journal trains the habit of inference. For each prompt, write 2–4
sentences explaining your reasoning. Show your "clues → conclusion"
thinking.
Clue File
1: Passage A states that Keynes argued
rational individual decisions could be collectively irrational. Identify ONE
contemporary economic phenomenon—other than those mentioned in either
passage—that might be an example of this paradox. Explain your reasoning.
Clue File
2: Passage B describes the post-2008
period as a "theoretical vacuum." What can you infer about the
psychological and political experience of policymakers who must make
consequential economic decisions without a coherent theoretical framework to
guide them?
Clue File
3: Both passages describe economic
theories that were treated as universal truths until historical events revealed
they were not. What inference can you draw about the appropriate degree of
confidence that any contemporary economic consensus deserves?
ASSESSMENT SCORING GUIDE
|
Section |
Possible |
Earned |
DOK |
CRM Cell |
|
Sec A: Single-Passage
Inference MC (×8) |
16 |
___ |
2–4 |
B-2 / C-3 / D-4 |
|
Sec B: Cross-Paragraph
Synthesis MC (×6) |
12 |
___ |
3–4 |
C-3 / D-4 |
|
Sec C: Dual-Passage
Synthesis MC (×6) |
12 |
___ |
3–4 |
C-3 / D-4 |
|
Sec D: Short Answer (×2) |
20 |
___ |
3–4 |
C-3 / D-4 |
|
Sec E: Extended Synthesis
Essay |
20 |
___ |
4 |
D-4 |
|
Sec F: Prediction &
Projection (×4) |
8 |
___ |
3 |
C-3 |
|
Sec G: Detective Journal
(open) |
12 |
___ |
2–3 |
B-2 / C-3 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
___ |
— |
— |
Grade 3
— Ocean Plastics / The Plastisphere
Section A — Single-Passage
Inference MC (Q1–8):
Q1: B
Q2: B
Q3: B
Q4: B
Q5: B
Q6: B
Q7: B
Q8: B
Section B — Cross-Paragraph
& Dual-Passage Synthesis MC (Q9–14):
Q9: B
Q10: B
Q11: B
Q12: B
Q13: B
Q14: B
Section C — Prediction &
Projection MC (Q15–18):
Q15: B
Q16: B
Q17: B
Q18: B
Sections D, E,
F, G: Apply DOK/CRM open-response rubric below.
Grade 4
— Mongol Empire / Pax Mongolica
Section A — Single-Passage
Inference MC (Q1–8):
Q1: B
Q2: B
Q3: B
Q4: B
Q5: B
Q6: B
Q7: B
Q8: B
Section B — Cross-Paragraph
& Dual-Passage Synthesis MC (Q9–14):
Q9: B
Q10: B
Q11: B
Q12: B
Q13: B
Q14: B
Section C — Prediction &
Projection MC (Q15–18):
Q15: B
Q16: B
Q17: B
Q18: B
Sections D, E,
F, G: Apply DOK/CRM open-response rubric below.
Grade 5
— Social Conditions of Science / HeLa Cells
Section A — Single-Passage
Inference MC (Q1–8):
Q1: B
Q2: B
Q3: B
Q4: B
Q5: B
Q6: B
Q7: B
Q8: B
Section B — Cross-Paragraph
& Dual-Passage Synthesis MC (Q9–14):
Q9: B
Q10: B
Q11: B
Q12: B
Q13: B
Q14: B
Section C — Prediction &
Projection MC (Q15–18):
Q15: B
Q16: B
Q17: B
Q18: B
Sections D, E,
F, G: Apply DOK/CRM open-response rubric below.
Grade 6
— Architecture of Tragedy / Antigone
Section A — Single-Passage
Inference MC (Q1–8):
Q1: B
Q2: B
Q3: B
Q4: B
Q5: B
Q6: B
Q7: B
Q8: B
Section B — Cross-Paragraph
& Dual-Passage Synthesis MC (Q9–14):
Q9: B
Q10: B
Q11: B
Q12: B
Q13: B
Q14: B
Section C — Prediction &
Projection MC (Q15–18):
Q15: B
Q16: B
Q17: B
Q18: B
Sections D, E,
F, G: Apply DOK/CRM open-response rubric below.
Grade 7
— Sovereignty & R2P / Syria Trilemma
Section A — Single-Passage
Inference MC (Q1–8):
Q1: B
Q2: B
Q3: B
Q4: B
Q5: B
Q6: B
Q7: B
Q8: B
Section B — Cross-Paragraph
& Dual-Passage Synthesis MC (Q9–14):
Q9: B
Q10: B
Q11: B
Q12: B
Q13: B
Q14: B
Section C — Prediction &
Projection MC (Q15–18):
Q15: B
Q16: B
Q17: B
Q18: B
Sections D, E,
F, G: Apply DOK/CRM open-response rubric below.
Grade 8
— Economic Paradigms / 2008 Crisis
Section A — Single-Passage
Inference MC (Q1–8):
Q1: B
Q2: B
Q3: B
Q4: B
Q5: B
Q6: B
Q7: B
Q8: B
Section B — Cross-Paragraph
& Dual-Passage Synthesis MC (Q9–14):
Q9: B
Q10: B
Q11: B
Q12: B
Q13: B
Q14: B
Section C — Prediction &
Projection MC (Q15–18):
Q15: B
Q16: B
Q17: B
Q18: B
Sections D, E,
F, G: Apply DOK/CRM open-response rubric below.
DOK / CRM Inference &
Synthesis Rubric
|
Score |
DOK |
Inference Quality |
Evidence Use |
Synthesis & Register |
|
18–20 |
4 |
Original insight; goes
beyond both passages; identifies unstated implications |
Cites specific evidence from
both passages; no unsupported claims |
Tier 3 vocabulary; formal
register; cross-passage synthesis |
|
14–17 |
3 |
Strong inference; connects
passages; mostly beyond summary |
Mostly accurate citations;
strong use of at least one passage |
Tier 2; generally formal;
partial cross-passage work |
|
9–13 |
2 |
Some inference; partially
beyond summary; may conflate with stated content |
General references; may
paraphrase rather than cite |
Mixed register; one passage
only or surface synthesis |
|
0–8 |
1 |
Restates passage content; no
genuine inference |
Vague or absent evidence |
Informal language; no
cross-passage engagement |
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